Possible scenario
Cross-Border Escalation
27% Chance
Islamabad concludes that planners or facilitators operated from Afghan territory, reinforcing the pattern behind recent airstrikes. Pakistan carries out further limited strikes or border operations while Kabul denies responsibility and accuses Pakistan of violating sovereignty.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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