Possible scenario
Tight Cover Persists
40% Chance
U.S. commercial crude and strategic stocks remain thin relative to demand, but there is no immediate physical shortage. Traders add a modest scarcity premium to crude while the White House and Department of Energy avoid a large Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdown because the reserve is already near multi-decade lows.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Tickers
- OXY+1.0%
- XOM+1.0%
- CVX+0.7%
- PAA+0.5%
- VLO-0.4%
- EPD+0.4%
- KMI+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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