Possible scenario
Sustained Ukrainian Momentum
38% Chance
Ukraine consolidates the recapture of Lyman and uses the rail-and-road hub to keep pressure on Russian positions in northern Donetsk and western Luhansk. Russian losses cited by Zelensky reinforce the perception that Moscow's local reserves were badly depleted.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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