Possible scenario
Russian Counterattacks Contain
27% Chance
Russian forces attempt to blunt Ukraine's momentum with local counterattacks and artillery concentration around the Lyman-Kreminna line. The front becomes more contested, but Moscow does not immediately reverse Ukraine's strategic gain.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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