Possible scenario
Backlash Forces Reversal
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is a replay of the 2019 Doral episode: ethics criticism, congressional pressure, and procurement questions make the political cost higher than the benefit. The White House shifts the retreat to a federal or neutral venue while insisting the original proposal was lawful.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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