Possible scenario
Escapes Continue
38% Chance
The most likely outcome is a continued trickle of civilians fleeing Oleshky through mined, flooded, and surveilled terrain toward Ukrainian-held Kherson Oblast. Russian forces remain unwilling to open a formal corridor, while hunger and arrests push residents to accept extreme risks.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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