Possible scenario
Targeted Sanctions Cycle
38% Chance
Washington and European partners are likely to respond with additional sanctions against Chinese and Hong Kong intermediaries tied to Iranian drone factories. This is the most probable path because it fits the established pattern since 2023: evidence disclosures followed by entity listings and export-control tightening rather than direct military action.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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