Possible scenario
Supply Network Adapts
22% Chance
Iranian procurement networks may absorb sanctions pressure by using new intermediaries in the Gulf, Turkey and Southeast Asia. This scenario is likely enough because previous sanctions did not stop Chinese-origin parts from appearing in Iranian drones used by Russia and in attacks on Israel.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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