Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment Holds
27% Chance
China may try to protect its peace-broker image by promising enforcement against sanctioned firms while continuing talks with Iran. This outcome is plausible because Beijing has incentives to avoid secondary sanctions, preserve Gulf commercial ties and keep the Israel-Iran conflict from disrupting energy markets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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