Possible scenario
Convoys Contain Disruption
35% Chance
The United States, United Kingdom and regional navies expand escorted transits, reducing the success rate of Iranian attacks without ending the standoff. Shipping remains far below normal, but a visible convoy schedule gives insurers and charterers enough confidence to resume limited movement.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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