Possible scenario
Verification Rebound
18% Chance
A respected external group validates the disputed proof architecture or enough of it to revive OpenAI's scientific credibility. This would be a meaningful upside surprise for AI-research narratives, though still not a broad macro event.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Business Services +0.3%
Tickers
- MSFT+1.0%
- NVDA+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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