Possible scenario
Lula Stages Comeback
28% Chance
Despite prediction markets favoring Bolsonaro, Lula outperforms late polling in large urban centers and wins a narrow mandate. Markets treat the result as a political upset but not a systemic crisis if Bolsonaro and Congress accept the count.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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