Possible scenario
Bolsonaro Wins Contested
17% Chance
Flávio Bolsonaro wins the runoff by a razor-thin margin, but Lula's Workers' Party contests selected precincts and alleges coordinated disinformation. The result is likely to stand, yet a tense certification period raises institutional risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.0%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.