Possible scenario
Bolsonaro Wins Cleanly
48% Chance
Flávio Bolsonaro converts his prediction-market lead into a narrow but clear runoff victory, with Brazil's Superior Electoral Court confirming the result quickly. Lula concedes after PT leaders judge that challenging the vote would have little institutional support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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