Negotiated De-escalation

Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu uses the end-month response deadline to offer targeted education concessions while preserving most of the 2027 budget framework. This is the most likely path because Macron has already elevated the issue with an emergency meeting, and the government has an incentive to prevent student protests from merging with broader anti-austerity action.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.