Possible scenario
Contained Protest Cycle
28% Chance
Student groups maintain rolling blockades and demonstrations, but the movement does not yet draw sustained participation from national labor unions or opposition parties beyond rhetorical support. The government waits until the promised month-end response, accepting some disruption while trying to avoid a premature fiscal retreat.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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