Possible scenario
Broader Social Mobilization
20% Chance
The student movement broadens into a wider anti-austerity campaign after Lecornu's response is viewed as insufficient. Teacher unions and major labor confederations use the school protests to challenge the 2027 budget cuts more directly, increasing the risk of transport and public-service disruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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