Possible scenario
Negotiated Pause
22% Chance
Trump's threat functions as coercive leverage rather than a final decision to expand the war. Oman, Qatar, and European governments push a pause that allows both Washington and Tehran to claim deterrence without accepting a formal ceasefire.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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