Possible scenario
Limited Coercive Strikes
34% Chance
The most likely path is a calibrated U.S.-Israeli escalation meant to restore deterrence without committing to a regime-ending campaign. CENTCOM targets missile batteries, drone depots, air-defense radars, and IRGC command nodes while leaving most nuclear and energy infrastructure intact.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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