Possible scenario
Investigation De-escalates
40% Chance
The release of the seventh suspect on bail suggests investigators may be separating peripheral figures from the core alleged plotters. Counter Terrorism Policing South East and the CPS continue evidence review, but the immediate security signal is less severe than after the initial IRGC attribution.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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