Possible scenario
Selling Broadens Abroad
20% Chance
Sumitomo Mitsui DS becomes an early example of a wider foreign-investor retreat from French sovereign debt. The pressure remains below crisis levels, but wider OAT spreads tighten financial conditions for French banks and raise the risk of further rating action.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.2%
- Industrials -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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