Possible scenario
Outflows Stay Contained
45% Chance
Sumitomo Mitsui DS's exit proves to be a visible but not systemic signal of foreign investor discomfort with France. Japanese and other overseas accounts remain cautious, but French domestic banks, insurers and real-money buyers prevent a disorderly widening in OAT-Bund spreads.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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