Possible scenario
Budget Deal Stabilizes
25% Chance
French officials use the market pressure to accelerate a budget compromise around the €43 billion savings plan. Investors treat the agreement as enough to slow rating-agency pressure, even if France's debt trajectory remains difficult.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.0%
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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