Possible scenario
Ukraine Exploits Exhaustion
18% Chance
Russian losses create tactical openings for Ukraine, especially where assault formations have been repeatedly depleted. Kyiv uses drones, artillery, and local counterattacks to pressure overstretched Russian units.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.