Possible scenario
Kremlin Expands Manpower
25% Chance
The casualty rate forces Moscow to deepen mobilization through higher enlistment bonuses, expanded regional quotas, or a more formal call-up. This would signal that Russia is preparing for a longer war despite mounting losses.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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