Possible scenario
Attrition Stalemate Persists
45% Chance
Russia continues high-casualty assaults around Lyman, Pokrovsk, and Kupiansk without a decisive operational breakthrough. Moscow absorbs the manpower cost because the Kremlin still prioritizes grinding territorial pressure over force preservation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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