Possible scenario
Saudi-Led Escalation
20% Chance
Riyadh concludes that diplomacy will not return lost territory and increases air, intelligence, and logistical support for Yemen's anti-Houthi offensive. The move raises the odds of tactical gains but also increases the risk of Houthi retaliation against Saudi-linked assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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