Possible scenario
Prolonged Limited War
40% Chance
Saudi Arabia maintains its refusal to accept a truce without a Houthi pullback, while Yemen's internationally backed forces struggle to retake the Bab al-Mandeb corridor. The conflict stays intense but geographically contained, keeping shipping and oil-risk premiums elevated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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