Mediated Partial Pullback

Omani and UN channels revive diplomacy by linking a Houthi withdrawal from recently seized areas to humanitarian access, salary payments, and limits on Saudi airstrikes. This is less likely than continued fighting but remains plausible because all sides face rising costs from a chokepoint standoff.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.