Possible scenario
Street Protests Intensify
20% Chance
The symbolic olive-tree event becomes a rallying point for pro-Palestinian groups and counter-demonstrators in New York. The most plausible stress channel is local public-safety disruption, especially near City Hall, the Israeli Consulate, and Midtown protest routes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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