Possible scenario
Legal Block Prevails
22% Chance
Israel’s judiciary, attorney general, or military legal establishment slows implementation of the death-penalty statute. This path reduces the immediate risk of retaliation and preserves room for US, Egyptian, and Qatari mediation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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