Possible scenario
Ben-Gvir Gains Leverage
25% Chance
Ben-Gvir uses the mandatory death-penalty law to force Netanyahu into coalition concessions, increasing his control over security policy without necessarily producing an immediate execution. Markets would treat this as a moderate Israeli political-risk escalation rather than a regional crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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