Possible scenario
Tariff Inflation Broadens
27% Chance
Investors connect the expectations jump to the New York Fed finding that tariffs boosted goods inflation. Retailers, manufacturers, and import-heavy consumer firms face pressure if companies pass higher costs to households rather than absorbing margin hits.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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