Possible scenario
Fed Repricing Higher
38% Chance
The rise in one-year inflation expectations is treated as another sign that tariffs, wages, and services prices are keeping inflation psychology unsettled. Markets pull forward a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve path, especially if officials stress that expectations must remain anchored.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.