Possible scenario
Safe-Haven Bid Dominates
25% Chance
The dollar high may prove less about U.S. strength and more about global risk aversion. If investors seek liquidity because of geopolitical or overseas credit stress, the dollar can rise even as Treasury yields fall.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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