Possible scenario
Fed Premium Persists
42% Chance
The most likely path is that the 18-month dollar high reflects renewed U.S. rate advantage after sticky inflation and resilient activity. Markets price fewer 2026 Fed cuts while the ECB and other central banks appear closer to easing or staying accommodative.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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