Contained Kurdish Blame Fight

The most likely path is that Bafel Talabani’s accusation against Erbil becomes part of the PUK-KDP power struggle rather than a trigger for a wider conflict. Both parties keep blaming each other while avoiding steps that would invite a federal crackdown or direct Iranian involvement.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.