Possible scenario
Sustained Air Campaign
25% Chance
The administration concludes that limited strikes will not restore deterrence and launches a broader campaign against Iranian missile, drone, naval, and nuclear-adjacent infrastructure. Iran retaliates but still stops short of a full Hormuz closure, leaving markets in a high-volatility but not yet crisis state.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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