Possible scenario
Diplomatic Delay
20% Chance
Despite leaning toward combat operations, Trump delays or narrows strikes after Gulf intermediaries offer a face-saving channel to reduce maritime attacks. This outcome is plausible because Gulf states have strong incentives to prevent a wider war that threatens energy flows and U.S. bases.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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