Possible scenario
Controlled Military Signaling
45% Chance
China uses the Liaoning deployment to signal displeasure with Keen Sword 27 and the U.S.-Japan anti-ship missile deployment, but avoids unsafe encounters. Tokyo, Washington, and Beijing trade statements while keeping naval and air operations within established patterns.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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