Possible scenario
Allied Posture Hardens
18% Chance
Washington and Tokyo respond to the Liaoning activity by emphasizing anti-ship missile operations, air-defense integration, and island-defense scenarios during Keen Sword 27. China criticizes the change but does not materially escalate beyond additional surveillance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Technology -0.3%
Tickers
- LMT+1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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