Possible scenario
Watered Down Package
25% Chance
The government avoids a direct challenge to First Past the Post and instead packages less controversial democratic reforms. This is plausible if Labour MPs fear a Reform UK backlash in marginal seats.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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