Possible scenario
Bubble Burst
20% Chance
The dot-com comparison becomes self-reinforcing after investors conclude that AI infrastructure spending has outrun near-term monetization. A material reset in data-center capex expectations hits semiconductors, cloud platforms and highly valued software, though the initial reaction to the concentration headline is still a market derisking rather than a crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.4%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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