Possible scenario
Guardrails Clash
20% Chance
The dinner exposes a deeper disagreement over whether safety guardrails slow U.S. competition with China. This path is less likely than compromise, but the prior White House memo and earlier decision to shun Anthropic make a renewed clash plausible.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.5%
- Telecommunications -0.2%
- Business Services -0.2%
Tickers
- GOOG-1.9%
- AMZN-1.1%
- MSFT+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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