Possible scenario
Guardrails Bargain
35% Chance
The dinner produces a narrow truce: Anthropic keeps much of its safety posture while offering the White House more transparency on model evaluations and national-security use cases. This is the most likely path because both sides have incentives to avoid an open split while claiming progress on U.S. AI leadership.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.3%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Business Services +0.2%
- Utilities +0.2%
Tickers
- GOOG+1.7%
- AMZN+1.1%
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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