Possible scenario
Negotiated Compliance Settlement
45% Chance
The most likely path is a negotiated add-on resolution rather than a full collapse of the 2023 settlement. DOJ, Treasury, OFAC, FinCEN, and the court-appointed monitors would likely press Binance for new penalties, data access, and sanctions controls while avoiding a disorderly action against a systemically important crypto venue.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- COIN+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.