Possible scenario
Formal Breach Finding
25% Chance
DOJ could conclude Binance breached the 2023 plea or compliance obligations if monitors find Iranian flows continued after promised controls were in place. This would be a materially worse outcome, potentially reopening criminal exposure and forcing a new court-supervised remediation package.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- COIN-1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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