Possible scenario
Southern Syria Flare-Up
20% Chance
The dispute over the alleged call becomes part of a broader breakdown in trust after renewed violence in Suwayda or Israeli warnings over armed deployments. This remains more likely to be a contained security episode than a full Israel-Syria war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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