Possible scenario
Denial, Channels Continue
45% Chance
Damascus maintains that no direct Netanyahu call occurred, preserving domestic legitimacy after the July 2025 strikes. Israel, Syria, the United States and Jordan continue using intermediaries to manage Suwayda and southern Syria security issues without forcing public recognition.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.