Possible scenario
Stagflation Pricing Persists
38% Chance
The 46.3 sentiment reading reinforces a stagflationary interpretation: consumers are weakening while tariff-linked goods inflation remains sticky. Investors focus on slower real wage growth, weaker discretionary demand, and a less comfortable Federal Reserve inflation tradeoff.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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